AEW Full Gear 2025 Prediction
The Another major pay-per-view of the year, AEW Full Gear 2025, stands poised to deliver a definitive conclusion to several of the most intense and emotional rivalries in All Elite Wrestling. From the psychological warfare in the main event Steel Cage to the high-stakes Women’s World Championship clash, this card is absolutely stacked. The stakes feel uniquely high this year, with championship legacies, personal freedom, and massive fortunes hanging in the balance. This is not just a night of wrestling; it is a battle for the soul of AEW, promising to set the foundation for the upcoming Continental Classic and the entire 2026 calendar.
The sheer unpredictability of the matchups, fueled by the relentless action we saw on the AEW Full Gear Go-Home shows, guarantees a historic night. Our focus today is to dissect the potential results, analyzing the momentum, the narrative weight, and the inevitable twists that will define this AEW Full Gear 2025 event. The outcome of this Full Gear PPV will shape the landscape of every division.
Full Card –
Women’s World Tag Team Championship Tournament: 4-Way Final
The Match: A high-stakes 4-Way Tag Team Match featuring the four remaining teams in the inaugural AEW Women’s World Tag Team Championship Tournament. The winning team earns the right to choose the stipulation for their semi-final match.
- Timeless Love Bombs (Toni Storm & Mina Shirakawa)
- Megan Bayne & Marina Shafir
- Babes of Wrath
- Sisters of Sin
The Narrative Setup: This match is pivotal for the women’s division, establishing the dominant tag teams of the new era. The Timeless Love Bombs are the charismatic, star-powered favorites, combining Toni Storm’s veteran flair with Mina Shirakawa’s captivating offense. Their victory over Alex Windsor and Riho showcased immediate, undeniable chemistry. Conversely, Megan Bayne and Marina Shafir represent sheer power and submission-based aggression, building momentum from their strong performance in the Blood & Guts match. The other two teams, Babes of Wrath and Sisters of Sin, bring elements of chaos and dark intrigue, making the outcome highly unpredictable. The ability to choose the semi-final stipulation—be it Extreme Rules, a Ladder Match, or a simple 2/3 Falls—is a massive competitive advantage.
The Prediction & Rationale: The tournament is designed to crown not only credible champions but also a compelling new act that resonates with the audience. While the power game of Bayne and Shafir is formidable, the sheer star presence and synchronized offense of the Timeless Love Bombs make them the most marketable choice for this early victory. Their momentum is currently unmatched in the women’s division outside of the top title feud. This victory is critical to setting up a major babyface versus heel dynamic later in the tournament.
- Predicted Winner: Timeless Love Bombs (Toni Storm & Mina Shirakawa)
- Post-Match: Storm and Shirakawa choose a stipulation that highlights their charisma and ability to cheat, perhaps a “Hollywood Rules” match, where the most visually stunning moment earns a near fall.
The Casino Gauntlet Match for the AEW National Championship
The Match: The multi-man Casino Gauntlet Match to determine the first-ever AEW National Champion. The final two confirmed entrants are Bobby Lashley (#1) and Shelton Benjamin (#2), ensuring an explosive start.
The Narrative Setup: This match is built on the concept of grueling endurance and high-stakes positioning. The new AEW National Championship is intended to elevate the upper mid-card, giving highly established stars a title to fight for outside the main AEW World Championship picture. The first entrants, Bobby Lashley and Shelton Benjamin , are powerhouse veterans whose opening exchange will set a tone of physical realism and intensity. The Gauntlet format ensures that the winner must survive an entire field of competitors, legitimizing the inaugural champion immediately. The focus keyword, Casino Gauntlet Match, captures the prestige and competitive intensity of this new title.
The Prediction & Rationale: The narrative surrounding this match is all about establishing dominance in a new division. While Benjamin is a threat, Lashley has been positioned as an absolute force since his arrival. For the title to immediately feel like a big deal, it needs to be held by someone with undeniable main event credibility and an aura of invincibility. Lashley winning the inaugural title allows him to anchor the mid-card, establishing the title as a gatekeeper to the main event scene. The final moments of the Gauntlet will likely involve Lashley defeating a high-flying, smaller competitor like Ricochet or Mike Bailey, showcasing the ultimate triumph of strength over speed.
- Predicted Winner: Bobby Lashley
- Post-Match: Lashley stands tall with the new title, issuing an open challenge to the rest of the locker room, establishing his reign as a dominant period.
3. Darby Allin vs. PAC
The Match: A singles contest between two veterans of high-risk, high-reward action: Darby Allin and PAC.
The Narrative Setup: This is a classic clash of styles and philosophies. Darby Allin represents the reckless, defiant spirit of AEW, willing to risk everything for a win. PAC is “The Bastard,” a man driven by technical perfection, intensity, and a deep-seated contempt for anyone who relies on luck or theatrics. The build has been personal, with PAC accusing Allin of squandering his talent on spectacle rather than championship gold. This match is crucial for Darby, who needs a major PPV win to re-establish himself as a threat after recent major losses. Conversely, PAC needs a decisive victory to position himself as a top contender for the International or Continental title.
The Prediction & Rationale: The story here is about redemption and defiance. While PAC is a world-class technician who rarely loses clean, Darby Allin’s character arc demands a moment of triumph at this Full Gear PPV. The match is expected to be a grueling spectacle, likely spilling into the arena. To truly elevate Darby back to the main event level, he needs to overcome someone as formidable as PAC. The victory for Allin should be gritty, showing his capacity to absorb immense punishment and still find a way to win. This would be a crucial turning point for Darby’s momentum.
- Predicted Winner: Darby Allin
- Post-Match: Allin retrieves his skateboard, acknowledging the respect shown by PAC, but the moment is cut short by a mysterious new heel targeting the reckless star, setting up Darby’s next major feud.
4. TNT Championship: Kyle Fletcher (c) vs. Mark Briscoe (No DQ)
The Match: TNT Championship Match with the massive stipulation: If Kyle Fletcher wins, Mark Briscoe must join the Don Callis Family. The match is No Disqualification.
The Narrative Setup: This is arguably the most emotionally loaded match on the card, given the high stakes surrounding the TNT Championship and Mark Briscoe’s personal freedom. Kyle Fletcher the young, arrogant champion, has fully embraced the calculating influence of the Don Callis Family. His recent wins and the brutal ambush of Briscoe on the go-home show (orchestrated by Okada) demonstrate his willingness to use manipulation and numbers to maintain his reign. Briscoe is fighting for his life, his identity, and his honor. The No Disqualification stipulation heavily favors the DCF, as it practically guarantees interference from the faction.
The Prediction & Rationale: The narrative arc suggests that Briscoe’s fight is too personal to succeed against the overwhelming numbers of the Don Callis Family. While the emotional payoff of a Briscoe victory would be huge, the heat generated by the loss and his enforced servitude would be an even bigger angle for the company moving into 2026. The storyline needs the Don Callis Family to gain a massive victory to solidify their standing as the most dangerous faction in AEW. This loss will provide a prolonged, heartbreaking story for Briscoe as he struggles under the family’s thumb, leading to a massive payoff when he eventually breaks free. The TNT Championship serves as the perfect vehicle for this high-stakes manipulation.
- Predicted Winner: Kyle Fletcher
- Post-Match: Don Callis immediately forces a distraught Mark Briscoe into a Don Callis Family t-shirt. Briscoe is forced to comply, creating an immediate, painful storyline for the next few months as he grapples with his new affiliation.
5. AEW World Tag Team Championship: Brodido (c) vs. FTR
The Match: AEW World Tag Team Championship Match: Brodido (Bandido & Partner) (c) vs. FTR (Dax Harwood & Cash Wheeler).
The Narrative Setup: This match represents a phenomenal clash of philosophies for the AEW World Tag Team Championship. Brodido, the reigning champions, embody breathtaking athleticism, innovative high-flying offense, and undeniable charisma. They are the modern standard-bearers for speed and excitement in the division. Their challengers, FTR, recently underwent a dramatic heel turn, reverting to their aggressive, old-school style where “no flips, just fists” is the dominant mantra. This is a story of tradition and rule-breaking aggression attempting to ground and conquer innovation and aerial mastery. FTR is seeking to prove that their cynical, win-at-all-costs approach is the superior method for championship dominance.
The build has highlighted the frustrating nature of FTR’s new tactics, as they constantly attempt to disrupt Brodido’s rhythm, focusing on painful submissions and limb work rather than the head-to-head mat wrestling they are known for. For the champions, this is a test of their composure—can they maintain their aerial attack against two of the most technically proficient and ruthless tag wrestlers in the world? The tension is immense, as a team known for their integrity (FTR, historically) has now fully embraced villainy, making their challenge to the highly honorable Brodido all the more potent.
The Prediction & Rationale: While Brodido’s title reign has been highly entertaining and popular, the narrative is perfectly set up for FTR to solidify their heel turn by capturing the AEW World Tag Team Championship. For FTR’s new, darker persona to be truly effective, they need a major, controversial victory over beloved champions at a marquee AEW Full Gear 2025 event. Expect a long, grueling match where FTR successfully grounds the high-flyers, isolating Bandido or his partner and utilizing a low-blow or an intentional distraction to secure a dirty pin. This victory positions FTR as the dominant, ruthless heel champions heading into 2026, creating a massive chase scenario for the entire tag team division.
- Predicted Winner: FTR (Dax Harwood & Cash Wheeler)
- Post-Match: FTR cheats to win, perhaps using the ropes or an unseen weapon. After the match, they brutally attack the defeated champions, asserting their dominance and forcing the crowd to react with fury, establishing maximum heat for their reign.
6. AEW Women’s World Championship: Kris Statlander (c) vs. Mercedes Moné
The Match: AEW Women’s World Championship Match: Kris Statlander (c) vs. Mercedes Moné.
The Narrative Setup: This is a generational clash for the AEW Women’s World Championship. Kris Statlander is the resilient champion, having defended the title relentlessly against all comers, establishing herself as the backbone of the women’s division. Mercedes Moné, having unified the ROH Women’s World TV Championship, enters this match with all the momentum, swagger, and championship experience in the world. Moné’s calculated, brutal attack on Statlander on the go-home show cemented her role as the ultimate threat. The story is simple: can the dominant outsider, Moné, dethrone the powerful, homegrown champion, Statlander?
The Prediction & Rationale: When a superstar of Moné’s stature enters a company, the ultimate trajectory often involves winning the top title. A decisive victory for Mercedes Moné at AEW Full Gear 2025 would be a monumental moment for the entire promotion. It would immediately place the AEW Women’s World Championship in the global spotlight, giving the division a certified, international star as its centerpiece. Statlander has had a strong, lengthy reign, but now is the time to pass the torch to a new, dynamic heel. This win also allows Moné to begin a long, dominant reign that can be challenged by other homegrown stars like Willow Nightingale or Jamie Hayter in the future.
- Predicted Winner: Mercedes Moné
- Post-Match: Moné celebrates wildly, holding both the AEW Women’s World Championship and the ROH Women’s World TV Championship high. She refuses to shake Statlander’s hand, establishing her heel reign as arrogant and disrespectful.
7. No Holds Barred: Jon Moxley vs. Kyle O’Reilly
The Match: No Holds Barred Match: Jon Moxley vs. Kyle O’Reilly.
The Narrative Setup: This match is purely based on violence, history, and physical payback. Kyle O’Reilly made a massive statement upon his return, instantly attacking Jon Moxley and repeatedly forcing him to tap out to the Ankle Lock, playing on Moxley’s past trauma and the injuries he has sustained. Moxley, the leader of the Death Riders and a man who thrives on violence, is seeking to silence O’Reilly permanently and restore his ruthless reputation, which has been questioned recently due to a string of losses. The No Holds Barred stipulation ensures that this will be a chaotic, bloody brawl, favoring Moxley’s usual environment.
The Prediction & Rationale: The O’Reilly return and challenge is a massive, highly anticipated moment. For O’Reilly to transition from a returning star to a legitimate main event threat, he must defeat one of the promotion’s biggest icons. Furthermore, Moxley’s character works best when he is pushed to the edge, and a painful loss here to his former stablemate would light a fire under the Death Riders, forcing them to regroup and become even more dominant in 2026. A victory for O’Reilly by focusing on Moxley’s injured leg, forcing a painful submission, would establish the Ankle Lock as the most dangerous finisher in the company and fully launch O’Reilly’s singles career.
- Predicted Winner: Kyle O’Reilly
- Post-Match: O’Reilly forces Moxley to pass out in the Ankle Lock. As the Death Riders (Claudio and Yuta) check on Moxley, O’Reilly stands tall, pointing to his name, declaring himself the most dangerous technical wrestler in the world.
8. $1,000,000 Match: The Elite (Kenny Omega & Jurassic Express) vs. The Young Bucks & Josh Alexander
The Match: $1,000,000 Trios Match: The Elite (Kenny Omega & Jurassic Express) vs. The Young Bucks & Josh Alexander. The winning team receives the massive prize money.
The Narrative Setup: This is the most emotionally complex and anticipated match of the night. It represents the final, agonizing decision for The Young Bucks. They are torn between the cold, corporate fortunes offered by Don Callis and the loyalty, friendship, and history they share with Kenny Omega. The return of Omega and the intervention of Jurassic Express prevented the Bucks from delivering the final blow on the go-home show, leaving their ultimate choice hanging over this AEW Full Gear 2025 PPV. Josh Alexander is the loyal attack dog of the Don Callis Family, tasked with keeping the Bucks in line and securing the massive monetary prize.
The Prediction & Rationale: The entire storyline has been a slow-burn redemption arc for the Young Bucks. To pay off this massive storyline, The Bucks must choose friendship over greed. The most cathartic and audience-pleasing result is for the Bucks to turn on Josh Alexander and the Don Callis Family during the climax of the match. The final sequence should see the Bucks refuse a command from Callis, turning their attention to Alexander. By securing the win for Kenny Omega and Jurassic Express, The Bucks complete their babyface turn and secure the massive monetary prize for their true family. This moment will be the emotional high point of the show, delivering a crucial feel-good ending amidst the violence. This result provides a massive springboard for Kenny Omega and the newly reformed Elite into 2026.
- Predicted Winner: The Elite (Kenny Omega & Jurassic Express)
- Post-Match: After the Bucks betray Alexander and Callis, The Elite and the Bucks embrace in a heartfelt reunion. Don Callis, furious and defeated, screams from the ramp as The Elite celebrates, solidifying a new, formidable top babyface faction for the new year.
9. AEW World Championship: Hangman Adam Page (c) vs. Samoa Joe (Steel Cage Match)
The Match: AEW World Championship Steel Cage Match: “Hangman” Adam Page (c) vs. Samoa Joe.
The Narrative Setup: This is the ultimate, brutal conclusion to a deeply personal rivalry for the AEW World Championship. Hangman Adam Page has been pushed to his absolute emotional and physical limit by Samoa Joe and The Opps. Joe, the cunning strategist and powerhouse veteran, has manipulated Page, forcing him into a state of paranoia and aggression. The Steel Cage stipulation is designed to prevent outside interference from Joe’s faction, The Opps, forcing a one-on-one battle of attrition. Page’s victory over Shibata on the go-home show proved his resilience, but the psychological toll of Joe’s relentless taunts has left the champion vulnerable.
The Prediction & Rationale: The storytelling has firmly positioned Hangman Page as the champion fighting for his identity against a cynical, destructive force. While Joe winning the AEW World Championship would be a credible, powerful choice, the narrative is built for the champion to overcome this immense, isolated threat. Page needs to prove he is a main event champion, capable of surviving the violence of a Steel Cage and the intelligence of a legend like Joe. The victory for Page should be definitive and bloody, allowing him to truly cement his reign as an all-time great. Furthermore, with the Elite reunion possibly happening earlier in the night, Page retaining the title provides a perfect top babyface to lead the company into a potential faction war against a resurgent Don Callis Family.
- Predicted Winner: Hangman Adam Page
- Post-Match: Page retains the AEW World Championship after an exhausting, career-defining battle. Battered and bloody, he climbs the cage and raises the title, having finally silenced the menacing threat of Samoa Joe. The PPV ends with Page standing triumphant in the cage, ready to lead AEW into the next era.
AEW Full Gear 2025 is set to be a night of massive upheaval, delivering necessary conclusions and establishing crucial new beginnings for several top stars. From the crowning of the inaugural National Champion to the emotional reunion of The Elite, the landscape of All Elite Wrestling will be irrevocably changed.
The predicted outcomes—Mercedes Moné’s conquest of the Women’s division, Kyle O’Reilly’s vengeful rise, and the tragic yet necessary capture of Mark Briscoe by the Don Callis Family—are all designed to create the maximum amount of future interest and controversy. Above all, Hangman Adam Page’s expected survival in the Steel Cage should solidify his reign as the ultimate fighting champion, providing the stability needed at the top of the card.
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